Analysis Notes

Analysis – Service Sector Snafus Sap FIEs

Posted by Editorial on October 12, 2011 at 1:36 pm

China needs government programs and promotions to boost its services sector on the order of its efforts to boost its manufacturing to launch the kind of services sector juggernaught the country requires to achieve full employment and sustainable GDP growth. Without an all-out policy push, armies of educated university students will find it increasingly difficult [...]

Scenario Analysis – The Impact of Local-Government Non-Performing Loans on Foreign Investment

Posted by Editorial on September 26, 2011 at 7:29 am

image credit: China Daily The prospect of an NPL portfolio to rival that of the early 2000s does pose the threat of tipping China’s economy into contraction. Tipping points such as a co-incidental price inflation spike in the cost of energy and commodities (as had been seen in 2008 at the threshold of the global [...]

Scenario Analysis – China Choices for Energy Sufficiency

Posted by Editorial on September 19, 2011 at 4:25 am

At the end of 2010 Shell Oil produced two future scenarios of how the world might revert wholesale to renewable energy sources – Scramble and Blueprint – both of which take account of China’s new-found role as energy heavyweight. TrendsAsia extended the Scramble scenario into a third, grittier scenario called Skirmish The first, called Scramble, sees [...]

Analysis – China’s Solar Industry May Brighten Southeast Asia’s Energy Portfolio

Posted by Editorial on September 13, 2011 at 5:46 am

  Southeast Asian nations may benefit from China’s full-on development of its domestic market for solar photovoltaic (PV) power. Countries like Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, which have the difficult task of administering territories separated by ocean, are not easily connected to massive electricity grids as one finds on large, contiguous land masses like China. [...]

Scenario Analysis – China Tipping Point: Mass Environmental Contamination

Posted by Editorial on September 5, 2011 at 2:24 am

The TrendsAsia China Impact™ Watch critical trends analysis model does not see a hard landing for the Chinese economy as a high-probability proposition. The China Impact™ Watch framework reviews Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental and Demographic (PESTELED) trends that impact companies doing business in China. However, three scenarios could trigger a hard landing and [...]

Scenario Analysis – China Tipping Point: Commodity Price Inflation Spike

Posted by Editorial on August 29, 2011 at 2:10 am

The TrendsAsia China Impact™ Watch critical trends analysis model does not see a hard landing for the Chinese economy as a high-probability proposition. The China Impact™ Watch framework reviews Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental and Demographic (PESTELED) trends that impact companies doing business in China. However, three scenarios could trigger a hard landing and [...]

Analysis – China Hydropower Projects and Border Relations

Posted by Editorial on August 22, 2011 at 2:28 pm

  At the end of 2010 China began work on the highest hydropower project in the world. Engineering teams dammed the Yarlung Zangbo River in the Tibetan Himalayas to build the first in a series of hydropower dams to meet the energy needs of a developing Tibet. The river flows from the glaciers of the [...]

Analysis – The Impact of Infrastructure Shoddiness in China on Foreign-Invested Companies

Posted by Editorial on August 8, 2011 at 3:50 am

image credit: BusinessInsider.com China’s business operating environment is becoming more volatile overall as several critical trends converge to increase risk to business: digital communications, middle class development, urbanization, infrastructure development and globalization have all become focused and refracted through the tragic bullet train accident on the Hangzhou-Wenzhou line on June 23, 2011. Though the country [...]

Analysis – China Slowdown: The Impact on Foreign-Invested Businesses

Posted by Editorial on August 1, 2011 at 1:55 am

Foreign-invested companies in China manufacturing for sale into the domestic market will benefit from the impending slack in the domestic labor pool caused by a global double-dip recession. Spring Festival 2008 – Chinese New Year – saw a convergence of trends that dragged the world economy into the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression [...]

Analysis – the Impact of Inflation on Foreign Invested Enterprises in China

Posted by Editorial on July 25, 2011 at 1:59 am

  image credit: china.org.cn The expansion of the middle class in China is creating inflationary pressures in China that are encouraging Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs) in the manufacturing sector to move operations to other countries. The migration of companies inland, away from the prosperous east coast, is also waning in popularity among FIEs as the [...]